The Political Dogfight

Switching to New Site

As loyal readers that have kept peeking in and out this site have seen, this site hasn't been active in a long time. It has over 700 posts dating back 5 years to the 2004 election. I will likely keep this up because it gets a fair number of search engine hits on specific topics.

But please set your bookmarks to the new blog Polcampaign. That's where I'll be writing, perhaps not as much as the last five years of fulltime political advocacy has driven my toes into the ground and used up my reserves, and I'll be looking for a job or a position on a campaign.

But I will be posting.

I find myself using Twitter everyday. You can follow me at Twitter here. I encourage you to do so. My Twitter account is ranked 93/100 and is part of 'The West Coast Elite'. I"m happy about that. I follow mostly journotwits (Twitter language) and Politicians. You'd be amazed at the direct access you can get to pols and journalists that way. My Twitter account is Twitter.com/stuart_oneill

Thanks for the loyal following. I will never forget The Political Dogfight.

Obama's Historic Arab Network TV Interview (video)

[Cross Posted from Polcampaign at stuartoneill.com]

[Personal comment: There was a diary of this event at DK and a good portion of the response was semi-negative since he choose a network other than AljazerraEnglish. I do not, as an experienced politico,understand why anyone with a brain doesn't understand this is a positive historic event that needs recognition and support.

The most important part of the event is that fact that for the first time the Arab, Muslim and Persian worlds can hear an American President articulate his vision on one of THEIR networks. It is a significant step forward to those groups. I frankly do not understand why so many in the 'progressive left' (a term I think is being misapplied these days) have such politically tin ears. An American President on Arab TV gives that President a forum to reach everyone! It is,in fact, historic and huge diplomatic step forward.]

On 1.27.09 President Obama took the historic step of being interviewed by the Al Arabiya Television network. It is the first time any high ranking official has ever granted an interview to Arab or Muslim TV networks. Seen widely in the Arab and Muslim world it is an affirmation of Obama's campaign promise to reach out to that world.

At points in the formal interview Obama says

"Now, my job is to communicate the fact that the United States has a stake in the well-being of the Muslim world, that the language we use has to be a language of respect.

RNC Chair Race, Rachel Maddow and Anna Marie Cox...great combo. (Video)

Anytime you get a chance to watch the Republican Party make an attempt at transparency and watch the resulting disaster it's fun. Sorry, but it really is fun.

Rachel Maddow has a fine report, appropriately funny, on the RNC conference and is joined by Anna Marie Cox, the original and infamous Wonkette. She is also funny and both are insightful.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

The Reality and Impact of The Attacks Inside Gaza [ WaPo 3 hours ago]

JERUSALEM - [Washington Post]
As Israeli forces attacked Gaza by land, sea and air, residents living in the congested coastal strip faced a fateful question: Flee the shelling and shooting, or hole up inside their homes and hope for the best?

The five-member al-Jarou family decided to make a break for it around midday Sunday. They abandoned their home in the Shaaf neighborhood east of Gaza City and dashed by car to a relative's house a mile and a half away, thinking it would be safer, according to interviews with family members and neighbors.

For a little while, it was. Then came a series of explosions. Concrete and debris hammered through the air. Hassan al-Jarou, 10, was struck in the head. "I was in the house, with my uncles, my dad and my grandfather, and I saw stones flying," he said as nurses attended to his injuries at Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. "I don't know what happened after that." (WaPo story continured here)

Israel Now Surrounds Gaza City. 500+ Dead (Video)

Per this report and many others, 10,000 Israeli troops and tanks have effectively cut off Gaza city. The Gaza death toll is estimated as 500+. The Israeli's claim that Hamas, their sworn enemy to the death, is hiding in homes, offices and even hospitals. All of these have been destroyed.

One of the Israeli leader said that this will continue until 'peace and tranquility have been restored to the cities in Southern Israel.'

I have a question: When has peace and tranquility ever been the normal state of affairs in Southern Israel? No one has answered that obvious question.

The world needs a yardstick to judge when it can reasonably expect this war that has cost over 500+ Gaza dead, many children, and 1 Israeli soldier and 4 Israeli civilian prior to the invasion will end.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Zgbig Puts Morning Joe In His Place

A Full Hat Tip to Taylor Marsh where I found this video and story. Amazing.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

"You know, you have such a stunningly superficial knowledge of what went on that it's almost embarrassing to listen to you." - Former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski

For Those Thinking That TheAuto Industry Doesn't Give A Damn

This isn't a promo video from Ford or any of the automakers. This is from The Movement Design Bureau, a think tank literally about the future design of movement. In this video the Movement Design Bureau interviews actual designers at are working on the use of agricultural bi-products. It's a great look at the actual design process.

Bill Ford Talks About The Future Of Ford Motor Company (Video)

This video was posted on December 8, 2008. It is the newest video communication I can find that is directly from Bill Ford. There are many statistics could flesh out this mini-interview. I think, however, this at least gives a glimplse of Ford as it is today and where it's headed in the future.

Remember Ford didn't need a dime of the investment from Congress. They must be doing something right. I will try and find a video of the "One Ford' concept mentioned early in the video.

Classic Wacked Out Video About The Money Crisis (Video)

Watching is the only thing that you need to do.

The Reality of The Good Cars We Are Building Today. Read On.

Too often the conventional wisdom in the looming credit crisis and the request of The Big 3 for a federal loan has been that it's all Detroit's fault for building bad cars that the public didn't want. It was all a management problem. I've never believed that was true. At least I've believed that's not true since the mid to late 1990's.

Yet it's become the overwhelming underlying assumption in the debate over the future of GM, Ford and Chrysler. They make bad cars. They aren't competitive. They aren't investing in the future. The list goes on. I've fought back against this meme in a  12-13 part series of articles at the Democratic Daily.

An auto dealer, Jim Jackson, stepped up with the truth on November 28, 2008 in a letter to the editor in Pennsylvania. It apparently caused quite a stir but, in my opinion, not enough. It was forwarded to me today. It's worth every second to read it. He has facts and figures I wasn't able to find for my articles. Here's a few tidbits to wet your appetite. The entire article will be on the flip.

When you say that the Big Three build vehicles nobody wants to buy, you must have overlooked that GM outsold Toyota by about 1.2 million vehicles in the U.S. and Ford outsold Honda by 850,000 and Nissan by 1.2 million in the U.S. GM was the world's No. 1 automaker beating Toyota by 3,000 units.

When you claim inferior quality comes from the Big Three, did you realize that Chevy makes the Malibu and Ford makes the Fusion that were both rated over the Camry and Accord by J.D. Power independent survey on initial quality? Did you bother to read the Consumer Report that rated Ford on par with good Japanese automakers.

Did you realize Big Three's gas guzzlers include the 33 mpg Malibu that beats the Accord. And for '09 Ford introduces the Hybrid Fusion whose 39 mpg is the best midsize, beating the Camry Hybrid. Ford's Focus beats the Corolla and Chevy's Cobalt beats the Civic.

About the future...

Did you realize that both GM and Ford offer more hybrid models than Nissan or Honda? Between 2005 and 2007, Ford alone has invested more than $22 billion in research and development of technologies such as Eco Boost, flex fuel, clean diesel, hybrids, plug in hybrids and hydrogen cars.

There much more to read in Mr. Jackson's letter. I've posted the entire letter on the flip. I think, if you read it with an open mind, you'll find new information to pass on to Washington.

Just The Big 3? Not! Toyota Announces First Loss In 67 Years

 In a nearly unprecedented action the board of Toyota has announced they expect to have a loss for the first time in 67 years. This would be the first since 1941! Can anyone again tell me that this crisis is limited to the US ? This is the MSNBC story.

NAGOYA, Japan - Toyota Motor Corp. projected its first-ever operating loss since it began such reports, acknowledging Monday that its nine-year stretch of global vehicle-sales growth had stalled.

Crashing auto demand, especially in its key U.S. market, and the profit erosion from a surging yen proved too much for Japan's top automaker, which had been booming on the success of its fuel-efficient models, including the Camry sedan and Prius gas-electric hybrid.

Gloom dominated the annual news conference by Toyota's president, who in recent years had outlined ambitious expansion plans. This year, Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe even refused to give a worldwide vehicle sales goal for 2009.

Watanabe continues deeper into the story:

"The tough times are hitting us far faster, wider and deeper than expected," he told reporters at Toyota's Nagoya office. "This is an unprecedented crisis requiring urgent action." <>"The tough times are hitting us far faster, wider and deeper than expected," he told reporters at Toyota's Nagoya office. "This is an unprecedented crisis requiring urgent action."

I guess Detroit isn't the only place with a problem. Sick as I am at hearing how Detroit is the only place with a problem I've finally got very public proof it isn't true.

Bush Gives GM/Chysler 17.4B Loan With A Single Sticking Point

George Bush came through with a 17.4 billion dollar loan to GM and Chrysler. $13.4 billion will come from TARP funds in December and January. $4 billion will be available in February assuming the Congress authorizes the second half of the original $700 billion rescue package. [Here's the White House 'Fact Sheet' on the loan package. ]

GM with receive 9.4 billion in December and January and an additional $4 billion in February. Chrysler will not participate in the February distribution. Ford is not participating in the loan package.There are strings attached. Some are silly and symbolic such as 'no use of corporate jets' and one a real problem with the UAW. The automakers were grateful for the opportunity.

Today Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli issued a statement saying the company was grateful for the helping hand and said, "Chrysler is committed to meeting these requirements." GM likewise said the decision "will lead to a leaner, stronger General Motors," adding, "We appreciate the President extending a financial bridge at this most critical time for the U.S. auto industry and our nation's economy."

The deal also includes non-binding "target" provisions, including making UAW work rules and wages competitive with workers at foreign car companies in the U.S. The issue here is 'work rules and wages'. By most estimates the actual gross wage pay of the workers are on parity now. By different calculations that include the health benefits, which are highly reduced at the non-union plants, then there is a difference. The bigger issue will come over 'work rules'. Work rules potentially covers a large area. It could mean requiring the union to act as if no union existed. The UAW will not allow that to happen but their reaction was muted.

"We will work with the Obama administration and the new Congress to ensure that these unfair conditions are removed, as we join in the coming months with all stakeholders to create a viable future for the U.S. auto industry."

There's an initial video report from ABC NEWS but they have made it so DemDaily cannot embed it. (Dumb.) The entire ABC News article is detailed and differently worth the time.

Bush Considering 'Orderly' BK For The Big 3

On the heels of GM closing 20 US plants for a couple of weeks and Chrysler shutting down all plants for a full month, President Bush has said, and Dana Perino, Press Secretary confirms, that Bush is considering an 'Orderly' bankruptcy for the Big 3. In a very detailed AP report, Bush admitted there were dangers in the process and said he has made no decision.

Bush even mentioned a 'federally directed' process. [My question: How is that done? Does Bush mean he can somehow take over the Federal Bankruptcy Court and predetermine their actions? The Constitution says we have three branches of government not two.] Because none of this would be happening if the credit markets hadn't closed and Wall Street fallen on it's face why does the President consider the most dangerous option of them all?

All of the automakers could have made it without government involvement if the credit markets, destroyed by Bush Administration policies, were open. I repeat, NONE of the Big 3 would have been at the governments door in normal circumstances. NONE of them, along with all the imports, would have taken massive hits in sales starting in September, if the Wall Street scare hadn't occured.

In the eyes of many, the fact that this option is on the table means that the White House just doesn't get the problem. Here's the question: Would you or I buy an expensive big screen plasma television from a company that is in bankruptcy? It's an expensive item.If the company is in bankruptcy, even with a 'predetermined' outcome, how could we believe in their maintenance and warranty contracts? We aren't senior secured debt holders. We would be at mercy of the court to instruct the company to honor it's warranty contracts. The court might not order that option. We have no way of knowing.

So, again, I ask the question would you buy an expensive electronics item if the company was in bankruptcy? I wouldn't. My guess it that you wouldn't either.Then how can we assume, in the face of polls that show that nearly 50% of the American pubic would refuse to buy from a company in bankruptcy, that sales will continue and, with this immediate recession shock behind us and credit again flowing, that sales will increase.

The 'prepacked' bankruptcy process that has been used successfully in other circumstances was based on the concept that routine credit facilities would be available while in bankruptcy reorganization. The auto industry knows that is not the case today. Where would be the credit they need simply to operate in the best of times? In a situation where the credit markets are so tight that larger businesses, as well as small, are unable to get credit even with the best of operating results what is the guarantee that those credit markets are suddenly going to open for the Chapter 11 bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler?

It's a ridiculous assumption and one that could be deadly for ten's of thousand of workers. If the markets and the politico's are freaked out at reports of 539,000 lost jobs in a month how are they going to react when it's double or triple that number? In my next article an expert speaks out about the fallacy that Detroit makes simply bad cars.

Here's the Reason The Big 3 Can't Build State of the Art Facilities Today

There is an enormous cost associated with rebuilding an old plant into a state of the art manufacturing plant. The reality is that other nations are willing to put up millions upon millions to lure US auto companies into their country.

An example of that is the Ford Plant in this video was shot in 2007 and shows the absolute state of the art auto plant. I've tried to nail down the exact subsidy amount but it's hard to do. The state and the country are paying for all the electricity, the land, 12 years of exemption from routine taxes and more. The number is well over $200 million.

Watch this video and see the future if we help them build the damn plant. GM is also subsidized in Brazil. All of this, including my stats above, are from 1999 news reports. 9 years.

That's how long it takes to build the plant, train the workers, debug the systems and go into full production. 9 years later Ford's line is moving at high speed.

The first objection I will hear is that the UAW won't cooperate.I believe after some headbanging back and forth that they will. They've already taken wage cuts, that when fully implemented, put them within $2 per hour of the non-unionized import plants.

This new style plant helps them compete on par with the imports and maintain their wage scale because they've helped lower production cost for the company at the same time. It's the kind of thing that can be negotiated. No need to try now. No Capital.

These are the kind of jobs both the UAW and the automakers need for the future. Here's where the cost of production plummets and the skills of the works rise. It can be done. There just has to be the capital for it. I wish I knew the amount of capital Ford put into this facility. It would give everyone a frame of reference.

Honda and the imports have all received subsidies from the states they are in and have built newer, more efficient plants. Subsidies. Interesting word with a dramatic impact on economics.

(Sorry the video isn't embedded but it's set so I can't download it.)

Big 3: The Actual Congressional House Hearing

This is 5 hours. Yep. 5 hours long. So you might jump through a few points. I've sat and watched the entire hearing. How much I learned I can't imagine. It was instructive. And you get to see who the real assholes on the committee are by the type of asshole questions they ask. I'm listening to the Congressmen from the 5th District of Texas. What an ass. I think we need to work from the actual facts of the situation. If we take the time to invest 5 hours or more we will learn as much as the Congresspeople on that committee. The guy from the Texas is irritating me.